FTX may be making headlines again soon, and finally not for more details on their spectacular fall from grace, actually, the total opposite - their potential resurrection!

In April we broke the story of an FTX relaunch even being a possibility, when our source inside the new FTX team told us they were considering two options - to pay back what they can and then close for good, or, the more intriguing option, re-open FTX for trading.

At that time they had just begun researching sentiment among former users, asking if all their funds had been returned to them, and knowing Sam Bankman-Fried was gone for good, would they consider trading at FTX again?

Then, if they determined enough users would return, they would still need to convince their larger backers, some of whom are owed millions, to go awhile longer or accept a smaller payment at first. However, if they support FTX's re-opening they could get 100% of their money back in the long run, because FTX would once again be generating profits.

That's Where We Left Off, And We Now Have An Update...

According to our source, re-launching the exchange is now their 'official' goal, as they've been instructed to begin preparing as if it is happening for sure — an order that comes directly from new CEO John Ray.

"I'll word it like this: it's not 100%, but it just went from a 50/50 chance to probably a 90% chance of FTX re-launching" our insider explained, but they still have some challenges ahead  "Right now we're legally a bankrupt company, so we don't have the freedom to just do something  we want to, there's additional oversight, and a process where we propose something and get approval to do it first."

When asked if they believed they would receive that approval, they told us "I think John (CEO) wants to make sure the proposal leaves no reason to say no. They'll want to see a company that fixed everything that went wrong under Sam, and see we've taken steps that would make a repeat impossible." I asked how close they were to being able to make those claims, and was told, "We can say all that now and it would be completely true" Reminding him I still needed an answer to the question, they added, "oh, yeah - yes" (they think the re-launch would be approved).

New Revelations...

This next part is a big deal - while I personally didn't have funds on FTX when it shut down, a lot of people did.  Since then, the media's coverage of the situation would probably give people the impression that most of what they stored on FTX is gone.

But when I asked what kind of responses they received from former FTX users when mentioning a possible re-launch, I got a surprising answer "First, they say F-off and they would never use a platform that basically stole from them. Fair enough.  But then you ask, what if they didn't take anything from them? What if it opened and all the funds they left there were still there?"

'Are you saying this is what would actually happen?' I asked "I'm not in accounting, so I can't say this is the case with 100% of accounts, but one thing you'll probably be hearing if FTX re-launches or when Sam's case goes to trial - he didn't really mess with the FTX US funds".

This Wasn't a Total Surprise To Hear - It May Be Sam Bankman-Fried's Secret Weapon...

Back at the beginning of the year when FBI agents brought Sam back to the US where he was arraigned and pled 'not guilty' to the charges against him it seemed like the response from the crypto community was 'he's a liar and that won't work once he has a trial'. 

But that made no sense to me. Sam's parents are both literally famous lawyers and Stanford Law School professors - Sam takes their advice.  So why would they advise him to fight the charges against him when shortly before his arrest he appeared on various podcasts admitting to misusing user funds - his point at the time was 'I wasn't stealing user funds, I just got confused, used funds that belonged to my users, and lost some of it.'.

I could only come up with one theory that made sense, and published 'The Twisted Way Sam May Be Found INNOENT' which goes in to more detail, but basically the only way someone who already admitted so much on video could go to trial and stay out of prison is if he only misused funds belonging to non-US citizens, and only did that while at his company headquarters, which is also outside of the US, in the Bahamas.

What does the US justice department do when laws are broken in another country and none of the victims are American?  Absolutely nothing.

Users finding out all the crypto they left on FTX is still there would be great news, which I said in our conversation, but as we suspected, they warned that non-US may have some bad news coming soon. "It's the funds from FTX's international platforms that Sam really screwed with." our source said  "We're (his team) not involved with any of the international stuff, but several times I've had to talk with some of the guys that are. For the first few months they always sounded stressed out and exhausted, they were cleaning up one hell of a mess."

But recently, even the team cleaning up the worst of it started to sound less miserable. "Last couple of times I talked to them, they seemed way more chill. Remember Bitcoin was at like $20k when FTX shut down, FTX is holding a lot of BTC and other coins that have gained almost $2 BILLION since trading stopped." I didn't really think of that until now, but it makes sense. "Yep, so that instantly becomes funds we can use towards making users whole, if the market continues this way, there's a chance FTX won't owe anyone anything".

That really would be a great ending to an otherwise miserable story, if HODLing pays the rest of FTX's debts.

In Closing...

"The situation has stabilized, and the dumpster fire is out, announced FTX attorney Andy Dietderich during a hearing at a Delaware bankruptcy court.

According to our source (who has been 100% accurate with his information since we first spoke with them back in December of last year) FTX is in such a better position than anyone thought possible, re-starting the exchange is now on the table. 

"The overwhelming majority of people currently involved with FTX want to see it up and running again" my insider said last night on Telegram, and then elaborated on what a perfect outcome would be for them "This could end up simply being a story of a company with a bad CEO, a problem that was fixed, but still has a happy ending where no business is forced to shut down, all the employees don't lose their jobs, and investors and customers end up with all the money they're supposed to have."

At this point I was a bit stunned... how did this whole situation go from sounding like one of the biggest disasters in the history of business, to something that could actually end with a healthy company, and everyone getting what is owed to them?

Here's how it could happen:

In mid-November when FTX filed for bankruptcy they owed $3.1 billion to its 50 largest creditors and at least $5 billion more to its nine million customers and smaller creditors.

At that time the company was able to find $3.3bn of assets... so, about $5 billion short. Pretty bad. 

I think most people assumed there wouldn't be a dramatic change in those numbers, but those people would be wrong. Since then, Sam was booted out of the CEO position and a new team came in to clean up and go over everything. 

For much of FTX's business there was no traditional record keeping, and it was their job to review emails, notes, chat logs, anything that contained business details, and create the proper accounting to go with them.

They found more than anyone thought possible...

Frankly, after we discovered the new team billing the bankrupt company for over $30 million for a single month of work, I was wondering if they were really doing enough to justify their price tag. Now it's a bit less shocking to see them charge millions if they’re discovering billions in FTX's assets. 

Total funds available to FTX have more than doubled since they took over. In the 5 months they've been there they we're able to locate $800M in cash, along with $600M in “settlements and investments receivable”.

But the biggest surprise: FTX's huge crypto holdings, which then increased in value...

FTX held way more than most people were expecting - $3.3 billion in crypto is currently sitting in FTX controlled wallets.

...and that gained over $1 billion in value as it sits there.

With FTX in very different circumstances than before, new options seem possible...

With the much improved circumstances FTX finds the business in,  they have narrowed it down to two options.

Option 1: Pay back what they can, then close. Use the funds to pay off debts, then shut down FTX for good.  Keep in mind, they're still about $1 billion short, with around $7 billion of the approximately $8 billion owed - people would get most, but not all of what they are owed.

Option 2: Re-open FTX. Conduct marketing research to find out if people would return to trade on FTX, now that Sam was out of the picture.  If this shows it could be successful, and the largest debt holders are willing to wait, they could re-launch the exchange using some of the funds they currently have, and pay some of their debts with what is left.  Then over time the remaining money owed would be paid out of future profits from the business.

Much of it will come down to how the public views the FTX brand, with Sam now removed...

This was a unique situation where even though you could argue that if Sam was even capable of doing what he is accused of, would have required others at FTX to have failed at their job, or been corrupt themselves - it seems like somehow 100% of the blame is directed at Sam, both from the public and law enforcement. 

Sam Bankman-Fried Leaves an NY Court after a second batch of charges against him were added.

Again, I know that's not true, but I have to remind myself that others have even officially pled guilty to felony crimes over this.  FTX co-founder Gary Wang, and ex-Alameda CEO Caroline Ellison both plead guilty to federal fraud charges.

But then they did the opposite of Sam and avoided the spotlight, successfully too - we've heard nothing from or about them since late last year. 

Next time we hear those names it will probably be as they're being used as witnesses against Sam.

In conclusion…

Remember - if they re-open the exchange they would also return user funds by putting those funds back onto the exchange, a powerful trick to get people to log back in.

Between that and my opinion that most people will see Sam's removal as the problems being 'fixed' - I think a successful future is absolutely possible for FTX.